How long can coal survive the pressure of phase out? 

The corner stone now being cast away; the era of coal is coming to an end. Coal no longer has room in the sustainable low carbon future train that is about to take off. It is a source of energy that has contributed greatly to the industrial revolution. One that has seen the growth, development and prosperity of the world but has proven to be the dirtiest source of energy and it’s time its use comes to a halt. It has served its purpose, a bittersweet one, that has contributed immensely to devastating repercussions which are currently posing a threat on humanity, climate change. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), coal is responsible for more than 30% of the average world’s temperature increase above pre-industrial levels.

Cities and towns that stand tall and high today were initially build on energy from coal. Billion and multi-million-dollar industries dominating the world now began with nothing but coal as the main source of energy. Countries across the globe down right to Africa have known coal usage as form of energy to power transport systems, industries and provide electricity for the countries’ citizens. Upon the realization of the reality of climate change and how devastating its impacts can be, countries have individually made resolutions to cut off on fossil fuels and embrace green energy. Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) convene every year to discuss matters pertaining to climate change and how the world can unite in the fight to combat climate change. Coal has been identified as one of the major culprits. A revolutionary agreement was made in Paris in 2015, termed the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement aims to strengthen the response to climate change and to manage the increase in global temperatures and to limit its increase to 2⁰C above preindustrial levels and pursue limits to limit it further to 1.5⁰C by the end of the century.

Parties to the UNFCCC have a mandate to work towards the Paris Agreement by ensuring the reduction in emissions at national level. Through the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), parties have set out their intentions and plans to work towards emission reduction. Greenhouse gas inventories have been done across the globe and still fossil fuels, coal mainly have been identified as some of the major contributors to greenhouse gas emissions with 14.7GtCO₂ released from coal in 2018, according to the IEA. If unabated the these will continue to rise. For hundreds of years, emissions were being released and accumulating steadily, a chronic effect is now being felt eventually and it is like a cancer. Drastic measures are being implored to achieve emission reduction needed to limit temperature increase by 1.5⁰C. Hence the call to ‘phase out’ call or maybe how some would like to term it, ‘phase down’ the use of call because the emissions need to fall twice as fast if the 1.50C limit in temperature increase is to be achieved.

At COP 26 in November 2021 in Glasglow Scotland, a resolution was made at the to abandon the use of coal as it has proven to be a carbon intense fossil fuel. At least 23 countries adopted new commitments to phase out coal power and this included 5 of the world’s top 20 coal power using countries. Major international banks, countries and public institutions have committed to ending public financing and support for unabated fossil fuel energy by 2022. No new coal power plants are being supported and this could shift approximately $17.8bn a year in public support out of fossil fuels to clean energy. Targets have also been sets and these state that there must be a fall in global coal usage in electricity generation by 80% below 2021 levels by 2030, Organization for Economic Corporation and Development (OECD) countries should have completely abandoned coal usage by 2030 and all coal fired stations must be shut down latest by 2040. The possibility of achieving these targets is yet to be determined as time progress. Currently, a 76% drop in the number of new coal plants planned globally since the Paris Agreement was adopted has been noted. This equally amounts to a loss of more than 1000GW renewable energy power plants would have to make up for.

Coal is a natural resource and is available in abundance in countries such as South Africa, Australia and Indonesia. It is one of the cheapest sources of energy and its export and business has earned developing countries like Zimbabwe some form of revenue. There are the G20 countries, those that have relied and benefited from coal exports and consumption for centuries. Examples of these are South Africa, Australia, China and India. China is one of the countries supporting the phase out of coal but just as what Nick Ferris stated in his report in January 2022, making a commitment is one thing and delivering on them is another. The question then arises, are they going to easily let go of coal and fully embrace renewable energy? Japan for example following the Fukushima case in 2011 has solely embraced the use of coal after neglecting nuclear power. With high population rates and increased demand for goods and services as well as the thirst for economic development, the demand for electricity keeps soaring and its surpassing that which can be provided by renewable energy only especially in developing countries. The use of coal then remains as the next available option to manage the situation. This is evidenced by a report by the IEA published in December 2021, which showed that coal was still substantially being used to generate electricity.

There are other factors that should not be overlooked that may affect the rapid phase out of coal usage by different parties in the world. The contradiction between factors that improve the quality of life of citizens in the developing world. The need to alleviate poverty, the need to develop economies and build adaptive capacity. A country like Zimbabwe is trying to build an upper middle-class economy for the benefit of its citizen by 2030.  It cannot afford to readily invest in renewable energy and has to rely on donor funding. Instead, it can afford to utilize the large coal reserves, an estimate of about 30 billion tons in 21 known deposits which can last up to 100 years, it possesses to run its energy and manufacturing industry.  Some of it can be exported to gain revenue and build its country which in turn will allow it to have some form of adaptive capacity. This means that for a few years or even decades the use of coal will thrive.

However, the world is a global village. Despite the local use in each country to meet its demands for electricity generation for the citizens and development there will come a time when a strain will be felt. Due to the fact that some parties have agreed to stop funding anything related to coal this will negatively affect those that will stubbornly remain in the coal industry, in the long run. International support in terms of funding, machinery for maintenance, consumers, expertise and skill will start receding and, in the end, coal will just be an abundant unexploited resource.