When Zimbabwe experienced Cyclone Idai in 2019 and Cyclone Eline in the year 2000, everyone felt the pain, including those who did not stay in the epicentre of the cyclone. As a country, we have come to realise that natural weather events are very uncertain and unpredictable. Therefore, through scientific research and monitoring weather patterns, we can meteorologically determine the weather patterns and model extreme events.
Predictive modelling using algorithms of remote sensing can allow us to see into the future before we get into it. Statistical knowledge and machine learning are beginning to allow unprecedented possibilities in order to help us to see what dangers may befall us in future. This approach can assist us in developing policy, technological and management measures including evacuation of personnel.
A pattern that was common at the turn of the millennium in Zimbabwe showed that every 10 years a major weather event such as a cyclone would happen. The shorter frequency between Cyclone Batsirai (January 2022) Cyclone Ana (January 2022), Cyclone Gombe (March 2022), Cyclone Chalane (December 2020), Cyclone Idai (March 2019) and Cyclone Desmond (January 2019), clearly demonstrates that we will not wait for a decade any longer. The pattern is beginning to show a shift towards more frequent extreme weather events. Although we cannot be conclusive without further meteorological data, we should be concerned about the frequent occurrence of such events. Deterministic models are being used to predict cyclones in both developing and developed countries.
Zimbabwe must prepare for every rainy season with the expectation for extreme weather events such as cyclones. Every season is becoming potentially dangerous and the risk of cyclonic activity is on the rise. In order to have higher certainty, we need a wider year range with several decades, whilst taking note of recent drastic changes.
Undertaking hind-casts and forecasts is needed in order to inform the public accordingly, as the fight against climate change hots up. It may well be that the country is headed to a more frequent cyclonic activity especially in the Eastern part of the country.
The economic damage caused by cyclones is enormous and it also affects social and human development. Cyclone Eline alone, in the year 2000 resulted in loss of US$ 309 million worth of property and infrastructure.
Rebuilding after such disasters is necessary but at the same time costly. The key question is how to better prepare for these unfortunate eventualities. Since the year 2000, Zimbabwe has experienced over 35 cyclones, with some of them being downgraded.
Eline (2000) and Idai (2019) remain the most devastating but we must not ignore those with a moderate or lower magnitude. There are other cyclones that came such as Cyclone Dineo (2017), Cyclone Eloise (2021) and Cyclone Japhet (2003) which need attention and should be considered in the development of predictive models. Whether big or small, cyclonic activity must be carefully documented in order to inform the science of modelling.
As we look into the future, we must treat each year as a possible cyclonic year, each cloud as potentially bearing devastation. The magnitude is what may be unknown. Prediction, anticipation and preparedness can assist in saving lives. The 2022 to 2023 season should be treated with caution, just in case the ides of another cyclone are in the horizon. Stay safe and know what to do in the event of a cyclone.
